Optimistic for 2016, Brian Beaulieu, CEO of ITR Economics expects orders to increase as U.S. consumers continue to spend and as the onshore near-sourcing phenomena continues.
Chris Downs from AMT sat down with Brian at AMT’s annual Global Forecasting & Marketing Conference 2015.
Brian outlined economic trends stressing that the future is going to be better than we think. He reports the next three years will be strong, as U.S. consumers are in very good financial shape even with interest rates rising.
Though he cautions, we may see a slower economy in 2019 as several trends converge including higher interest rates, which may changes consumer behavior, along with less government spending. He pointed to several inflationary pressures such as escalating wage rates and a skilled labor shortage.
On an optimistic note, Brian emphasized that positive structural changes within Mexico should benefit the U.S. economy. The Mexican government is now allowing U.S. companies to help harvest the country’s natural resources more efficiently. In addition the Mexican education system is improving, contributing to a higher quality labor force, as well as a growing middle class—a hallmark of a growing middle class.
He believes that Brazil will return as a viable market for manufacturing in about two years.
Heading farther into the future, in 2030 he foresees the U.S. economy slipping into a great depression, driven by a bigger national debt, demographics, and increased healthcare costs. Although 2036 will bring about a stronger economy as Millennials begin to spend inheritances passed down to them from passing Baby Boomers.
Don’t miss Economic Updates from AMT, sign up for the Global Forecasting & Marketing Package.