In July 2014, MTInsight introduced the USMTO in Advance app. The application uses the pre-released USMTO order data collected by the 15th of every month to estimate what the final monthly release will likely report between 20-25 days later. Since releasing the app, the estimation model has been reasonably accurate at foretelling the publicly released USMTO order performance.
Figure 1 shows just how close we’ve come. The red stars capture the predicted month-over-month percent change order performance based on the data collected by the 15th of month. The black bars show the actual monthly percent change values released 20-25 days later. In summary, the predicted percentage change values have only missed the actual mark by 13 percentage points on average. However, the direction of the forecast has been correct 16 out of the 16 months since the July 2014 release. And the forecast sign has only missed the actual five times over the same period. As with any forward looking estimation process, we’ll be tweaking and back testing new methodologies that will tighten up the accuracy regularly throughout 2016.
Overall, USMTO in Advance is a reasonably effective tool for participating manufacturing technology suppliers to get a general sense of order conditions well in advance of the actual release. If you are interested in using this tool, first sign up to participate in the USMTO program if you haven’t already, and then be sure to submit your orders to the program by the 15th of every month. The results are then accessible by logging into the mtinsight.org website and viewing the USMTO in Advance app.
If you are interested in learning more about MTInsight or about the USMTO in Advance app, please feel free to contact me at istringer@AMTonline.org or 703-827-5209, or contact Aslan Moini, MTInsight Sales Specialist, at 703-827-5290 or amoini@AMTonline.org.