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AMT-The Association For Manufacturing Technology
The American Machine Tool Industry - 2005 Update
The U.S. manufacturing technology industry is experiencing renewed growth in major markets, while continuing to face tough global competition.
The U.S. machine tool market finished the year 2004 with orders more than 40 percent above 2003 levels and shipments up 25 percent. Consumption, whether measured by orders or shipments, had fallen more than 60 percent from its peaks in 1998. Strong growth over the past two years still leaves the U.S. manufacturing technology market at less than 60 percent of its peak in 1998.
The short-term prospects are promising. The consensus outlook among analysts who follow the U.S. manufacturing technology market on a regular basis indicates a continued rise in orders this year. The optimistic forecast is for double-digit growth in 2005 while forecasts for the following years diverge. Many of the analysts feel that the best opportunities are in the present, and that some sectors in the manufacturing technology markets will begin to slow as early as 2006.
The signs of a recovery in capital spending have been clear for several years. The traditional signals for an imminent increase in capital spending are capacity utilization and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), an independent survey of manufacturers’ buying plans. Both of these began moving upwards in the second quarter of 2003. The capacity utilization index for durable manufacturing turned upward in April 2003, and the PMI index rose to over 50 (a signal of increased spending & growth in manufacturing) in May 2003.
Key customer markets -- such as autos, off-road and highway construction equipment, and appliances -- have seen growth in U.S. consumer demand slow down in recent months. The outlook for expansion of capacity to supply a growing U.S. demand for durable goods is weakening. The key to a continuation of the capital-spending boom will depend upon the fortunes of the export markets for U.S.-built capital goods and non-traditional, but expanding, domestic markets such as the medical equipment industry.
The weakened dollar and the elimination of punitive tariffs on U.S. goods shipped to the European Union (EU) have made U.S. products much more attractive in Western European markets. Exports of both manufactured products and manufacturing technology equipment illustrate the temporary competitive advantages provided by exchange rates shifts. Expectations are that the dollar will steady against the European currencies this year, but fall further against Asian currencies.
The resulting implicit price cut in U.S. durable goods could spark a renewed need for capital equipment by U.S. manufacturers supplying Asian markets. The weakened dollar relative to Asian currencies is likely to also lead to increased exports of U.S. manufacturing technology, as these products will also be less expensive relative to comparable European and Japanese products in Asian markets.
Still a leader
America continues to excel in important categories, including: metrology; composite tape-laying machines; transfer lines and systems; small, medium and large-size CNC machining centers; spar and skin mills for aircraft components; abrasive flow machining for difficult finishing problems; CNC turning centers; assembly systems; grinding machines; punch presses for materials over 60 mm thick; and spiral bevel and parallel axis gear-making machinery. In addition, the U.S. holds a leadership position in water jet cutting and laser processing machines, as well as in the technology for developing small assembly robots.
The United States leads in the development and production of machines to produce parts using the process of stereolithography. Work continues to enable a broader selection of materials. Other new technologies build metal components by selectively binding metal powder layer by layer.
The United States also leads in the introduction of open architecture controls which provide users with a wider choice of communication interfaces and the ability to develop their own proprietary applications.
These trends will be seen at the next International Manufacturing Technology Show (IMTS), September 6-13, 2006, at Chicago’s McCormick Place. The newest manufacturing technology equipment from around the world will be seen by close to 100,000 visitors.
The U.S. industry’s trade group is AMT-The Association For Manufacturing Technology (founded in 1902 as the National Machine Tool Builders' Association). The association supports and promotes the U.S. manufacturing technology industry and provides U.S. builders of manufacturing systems with the latest information on technical developments, training methods, trade and marketing opportunities, and economic issues. It also gathers and disseminates information about world markets, promotes its members' products in those markets, and acts as a representative on manufacturing technology matters to governments and trade organizations throughout the world.
In 1993, AMT opened an office in Beijing — the first trade association to establish a presence in the vast China market. The association also has offices in Shanghai and Guangzhou, and last year opened a USA/Technology and Service Center in Shanghai. It also has an office and Technical Center in Monterrey, Mexico. Visit www.AMTonline.org for updated information.
