| |
DeWolf Associates provides a quarterly forecast based on shipments of cutting and forming machine tools. The machine tool shipment data used in this forecast is from the Census Bureau’s MQ333W Current Industrial Report and not USMTC machine tool consumption data published by AMT & AMTDA. DeWolf Associates also walks you through the process to forecast your own shipments if you follow the industry pattern.
DeWolf Associates uses the cyclical forecast method which is based on year/year growth curves and their relationship to the business cycle. A year/year curve is a plot of the percent change in shipments for 12-month period divided by the 12 months of shipments ending with the same month one year earlier, converted to a percent. This rate of change curve shows how rapidly growth is increasing or decreasing. The business cycle has a dominating effect on year/year growth curves for many industries. DeWolf Associates makes this forecast by comparing the timing of turning points of year/year curves for machine tool shipments with the curves of indicators that lead in the business cycle. Cutting machine tool shipment growth is compared to the Purchasing Managers’ Index, an excellent short-term predictor for industrial production and related industries. Vehicle sales generally lead forming tool shipment growth by three quarters.
Available only to AMT members who participate in the annual Forecasting & Global Marketing Conference. For more information contact Patrick McGibbon, Vice President - Strategic Information & Research, at 703-827-5255 or pmcgibbon@AMTonline.org.
|
|
