Mclean, Va. (February 20, 2026) — The first estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed the U.S. economy growing at a 1.4% real annualized rate. The rate of change was driven by declines in government spending and exports, coupled with a deceleration of consumer spending, according to the data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s favored measure, increased to 2.9% in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, PCE inflation declined modestly to 2.7%. Total growth in 2025 was 2.2%, down from the 2.8% growth in 2024.
“Business investment in equipment was the sole source of growth in the fourth quarter,” said Christopher Chidzik, principal economist of AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. “Investment in AI infrastructure played a role, along with the record level of manufacturing technology ordered in the closing months of 2025. Slowing consumption of durable goods could be a troubling sign for the manufacturing industry; however, this could also be a temporary response to resurgent inflation."
Get the latest market updates and industry news delivered right to your inbox by subscribing to AMT’s twice-monthly newsletter, and learn more about the state of the manufacturing technology industry at The MFG Meeting on March 10-12 in Fort Lauderdale.
