At the press conference following the October 2025 Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, many questions arose over how the committee would assess the economy if the ongoing shutdown of the federal government delayed statistics until their December meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell likened the situation to driving in fog and the proclivity to slow down. Even if the statistical agencies reopened by December, the first estimates of data would be delayed and highly subject to revision.
While Powell chose a driving analogy, steering the U.S. economy through monetary policy is a little more like steering a large ship; minor adjustments create large impacts over time, and a course reversal takes a long time and responds erratically. Given these constraints, it makes sense that the Fed would consider pausing its rate-cutting cycle while sailing through a fog in the data.
This strategy works for the Fed, yet most businesses cannot afford to delay their decisions and need to choose a course. Luckily, businesses are far nimbler than the U.S. economy and can easily change direction. Despite this, they may still feel adrift without their typical data sources informing their decisions.
Down for the Count
Previous editions of this article have explored the background of the statistics collected by AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. The history of federal statistics dates back to the origin of the U.S. government itself: To apportion representation, the U.S. Constitution requires the whole number of persons to be counted. Article 1, Section 2, prescribed the first count to be made within three years of the first meeting of Congress and every 10 years thereafter. This first U.S. census began on Aug. 2, 1790.
Over time, federally collected statistics have grown far beyond the well-known decennial census. They cover topics such as employment, prices, production, and orders. Most agencies dedicated to collecting data and estimating economic conditions are in executive agencies, which are subject to congressional appropriations. As a result of the current federal shutdown that began Oct. 1, they were no longer able to pay employees or fund operations after the funding previously approved by Congress expired. In contrast, the Fed is a self-funded independent agency, yet, it is still unable to publish any information, as its methodology relies on data produced by these shuttered institutions. While the Bureau of Economic Analysis could not publish its official estimate of GDP for the third quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast estimated the economy grew at a 4% annualized rate.
Amid the fog created by the lack of government statistics, information from private sources could prove to be the lighthouse businesses need to steer by. Critical measures of consumer and business sentiment will remain available, as will employment data from payroll providers and various indicators of business activity from trade associations.
Bringing Home the Beacon
Despite Powell’s description of the foggy conditions created by the lack of data, he also signaled confidence that alternative data would be able to show signals of a “significant or material change in the economy.” When it comes to the state of the U.S. economy, every scrap of data is important for timing those shifts. For businesses, a data series that closely tracks their market or customers is equivalent to ensuring a lighthouse is bright enough to reveal the contours of the shore. So long as these contours are visible, businesses should be confident that there is space to make corrections when they act, as inaction in a time of opportunity could be the more costly course in the long run.
To help determine what data could serve as the brightest lighthouse for your business or to learn more about the data available to gauge the manufacturing technology market, you can engage with AMT’s research team. Visit AMTonline.org/research-services to learn more.
To read the rest of the Industry Outlook Issue of MT Magazine, click here.
